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ye7 Is Something Worrying You?
Gail Collins: Well, Bretye7, tomorrow’s the day. Have you voted yet?
Bret Stephens: I like voting on Election Day. But a friend voted at the Met museum the other day and said the line was hours long. Mostly women. I’m predicting a blowout Kamala Harris victory — in Manhattan.
How about you?
Gail: I like voting on Election Day even when the lines are ridiculous.
And yeah, what will likely be huge turnout in New York will not have any effect whatsoever on the outcome, since everybody on both sides knew from Day 1 that this was not a state anybody needed to campaign in much. But it would be nice if the margin for Kamala Harris in Donald Trump’s hometown was a super blowout.
Any predictions?
Bret: My spidey sense is telling me that Trump will win. It feels like he has the momentum, which is hard to measure but matters, especially in the final days of a campaign. He’s had the better photo ops. And surveys show only 28 percent of Americans think America is on the right track, which historically means the incumbent party loses. And, as I’ve been saying here, I also think that Trump represents control, and people feel that too many things have spun out of control during the full arc of the Biden-Harris years: migration, prices, rent, financing costs, urban safety, overseas wars.
Gail: Aaaeeeee …
Bret: On the other hand, who knows? The polls were too favorable to Democrats in 2016 and 2020. They were too confident about Republicans in 2012. I have no idea what to make of that Selzer poll in Iowa, which has Harris winning a state Trump won by eight points in 2020 — maybe it’s an outlier, or maybe it’s hinting at a Harris landslide. I wouldn’t be surprised if we have an early night with a clear winner on Tuesday. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re stuck in recount and lawsuit hell for days or even weeks on end, either.
Gail: Well, if Trump loses, you know that the recount hell will be fiery indeed. And I could also imagine the Harris people challenging a Trump win if there was good evidence of widespread shenanigans at the polls.
Bret: As with cancer, so with this election: Pray for clear margins.
Gail: On the prediction front, I’m gonna bet on Harris. Early turnout was heavy on women, who tend to support her. Do you have any plans for election night?
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